Wow!

[dancerjodi]

Around 200 people showed up for the meeting last night about a proposed moratorium on residential building in the city so that the law books could be reviewed/updated:
http://www.dailynewstribune.com/localRegional/view.bg?articleid=44441

We didn't go, because Brian got home from work right when the meeting was beginning (and actually, it wouldn't have been fun standing for the whole thing). I'll keep you posted on what happens (for those interested in urban/suburban development or real estate in the Boston area).

Comments

[developer.livejournal.com]

Interesting -- on the one hand it means that the apprarent over development would be slowed if not stopped, but it might also push the town towards being more Newton-ish as it would make everything that currently exists rise considerably in value.

Waltham

[dancer.livejournal.com]

"Interesting -- on the one hand it means that the apprarent over development would be slowed if not stopped, but it might also push the town towards being more Newton-ish as it would make everything that currently exists rise considerably in value."

But would it? If all you could do with a 2 family was rent it out as a 2-family (versus do a condo conversion) it would be worth less. If all you could do with the run down single family off of Moody was rehab it as a single (versus raze it and throw up another multicondo thing) - it would be worth less.

I'm curious to see what happens with values over the years. Housing costs continue to go up all over the general Boston area but can the market really sustain it anymore? People keep talking of a bubble and then a quick drop in values (which is why we wanted to get into Waltham *before* that happened, so we didn't get stuck in Framingham, not being able to afford to sell for less than we had in it).

Re: Waltham

[dragonvpm.livejournal.com]

Usually in real estate the scarcer things are the more they're worth. So if there are only 5 homes in a given block, then only 5 families can live there and you're likely to end up with an ever more overpriced/insane housing market since people will still want to live in the area (e.g. think about how determined you guys were to get in there).

I have my doubts about any major bubbles in housing markets for places on the coasts. You guys have a very finite amount of land and an even more finite amount of desireable land PLUS you have LOTS of people who want to live out there. The Boston area in particular seems to have a high influx of college age people who end up staying there after they're done with school. They find jobs, start companies, etc... but they stick around.

Personally I don't like things like that housing moratorium because it seems like something that's aimed at keeping out less affluent people. I know the reason a lot of people are against the cookie cutter condos is that they don't like how crowded they are or how they look etc... but what about all the people who actually want to buy them? I mean the builders aren't building them to destroy the city/neighborhood, they're building them because there is a demand for that housing. What do the people who live in them think?

I guess I just hear how much you love living there and how much you really wanted to get back in there and I wonder if there aren't people who can't afford their own house but who still want to enjoy the same things you guys do. Limiting construction of higher density housing is only going to raise the prices of even the smallest houses and it's going to make it even harder for people to be able to move into the city.

Re: Waltham

[dancer.livejournal.com]

"because it seems like something that's aimed at keeping out less affluent people."

Actually the opposite probably. What used to be in place of most of those multi condo units were old multi-unit apartments. Its in the poorer, more working class part of town. What used to be a 3 bedroom, "affordable" apartment is now a 2 bedroom condo. The previous residents that were in those spaces could never afford it. Even Brian and I would be fighting to afford one of them.

Who is buying them? Mostly young professionals with no kids that can't afford (or don't want) a single family - or can't find one due to low supply. More $ is coming into the city but the cultural makeup or 'feel' of those neighborhoods is changing.

There is a serious lack of *affordable* housing - there is no lack of "people storage". The influx of #s is another thing for some residents in busier areas . . . where are the cars going to go? There is already a serious lack of parking in South/Downtown Waltham (where we live) and a serious increase in traffic in North Waltham (where other large luxury apartment developments have been, and also where most commercial business along 128 is).

Whether that's a good thing or not depends I guess on who you are :).

If I was a working class parent looking to rent I wouldn't be happy about it. There's less apartments to rent and those that are available go up in cost as the costs of buying goes up. If I wanted a condo, I'd be psyched. If I was a landlord just looking to make money I'd be really psyched. People snap up a broken down 2 family for around $600k, rehab it, and turn around and sell 2 condo units for close to $400k each.

Personally, I feel for the people being priced out as Brian and I had a really hard time buying in what used to be a reasonably priced area (and we both have very good jobs). I also think that the new development kills the look of what is a historic factory town - I like Colonial and Victorian architecture. I also have to wonder how much interaction the new residents will have with the community (beyond contributing property taxes). How many kids can you really fit into a 2 bedroom condo? Not that families w/ kids are the answer to community development or that condo dwellers don't contribute to the community . . . I can only really use what I've personally seen as a basis for my own opinion or what statistics show - and the only statistics available right now are the decrease in affordable housing units, and rises of costs/property values.

"What do the people who live in them think?"

I'm not sure as a whole. The ones I've known personally could give 2 shits about the city (they are there for a cheap roof over their head and rarely contribute to local business, attend city council meetings or get involved in community groups).

"I wonder if there aren't people who can't afford their own house but who still want to enjoy the same things you guys do."

There sure are a lot of them. The condos are cheaper than single family houses but they are far from cheap - and just won't do for a family beyond 2 working adults.

"Limiting construction of higher density housing is only going to raise the prices of even the smallest houses and it's going to make it even harder for people to be able to move into the city."

Honestly, I don't know how it can get any worse. A lot of old time Walthamites (like my parents) have given up and are jumping ship before all of the "snooty yuppy shits" move in (his quote, not mine). I'm just going to hold on for dear life to my own little piece of real estate - you couldn't pay me enough money to sell to one of those developers (or, to charge astronomical rents to people if I was a landlord). I'm sure I'm the minority though, because money does make the world go around.

Re: Waltham

[developer.livejournal.com]

I've read stuff that both claims there is and that there isn't a bubble -- which has lead me to believe that the only way to know a bubble is to look back after it has burst.

I think that so long as you can tear down and rebuild (ie, take a run down single and rebuild it as you wish, staying as a single family), Waltham will rise in value simply due to the location. So long as living inside the 128 belt near Boston is attractive, I think Waltham continues to go up in value. If the number of residences available is reduced by a lack of new condos, then the supply/demand situation kicks.

I mean, I think Waltham will retain its character and Moody isn't about to become nonatum (spelling?) or anything, but I also think that while some town might top out, Waltham might rise more in value since for years it was undervalued.

I mean, you personally are probably in good shape first because no matter the housing values, you are where you want to be and the town itself isn't going to change overnight -- 20 years from now it might be a bit different, but then won't everywhere? Secondly I doubt your house value will decline -- the bursting of a bubble would be worse for places that are excessively overvalued, like say Belmont where they are trying to sell 3 bedroom condos for 550K! :)

Re: Waltham

[dancer.livejournal.com]

"which has lead me to believe that the only way to know a bubble is to look back after it has burst."

I totally agree. History in the real estate market has shown significant rises and falls, so it stands to reason that the bubble *could* burst. At this point though I don't care, since I'm where I want to be :)

"I think that so long as you can tear down and rebuild (ie, take a run down single and rebuild it as you wish, staying as a single family), Waltham will rise in value simply due to the location."

Well that's the point of this moratorium . . . people *won't* be able to tear down and rebuild (for a small time).

"So long as living inside the 128 belt near Boston is attractive, I think Waltham continues to go up in value. If the number of residences available is reduced by a lack of new condos, then the supply/demand situation kicks."

It kicks for people that own homes (or build them). It majorly sucks for those that can't afford them (or rent - because their rents will go up as sale prices do).

"I mean, I think Waltham will retain its character and Moody isn't about to become nonatum (spelling?) or anything"

Its Nonantum as far as I know (which I like actually, lots of cute shops and they still have the massive huge plastic Santa and the red white and green hydrants). :) I think it will change, but it will take a lot of time. I was there in the older boom days of Grover Cronins, small department stores and massive parades. I was there through the scary times of hookers and abandoned store fronts. I'm here now with the trendy restaurants, theater and luxury Cronin's Landing Apartments. I'm really interested in seeing where it goes, and how the demographic of the town changes (always the Sociologist) :)

"the bursting of a bubble would be worse for places that are excessively overvalued, like say Belmont where they are trying to sell 3 bedroom condos for 550K! :)"

I think the thing that hits me is that Belmont (or places like it) have always been expensive places to live. At one time Waltham was not.

When I'm out of school I'm going to volunteer for WATCH (Waltham Alliance to Create Housing) hopefully in some kind of data analysis capacity. At that point I think it would be really interesting to compare historical housing cost hikes for the surrounding towns and see how they stack up.

But I'm rambling! :)